Market Report

No. 10 | 16^th March 2026

Historically, oil price shocks have had a limited immediate impact on precious metal prices, with the price trend that existed prior to the oil price shock usually continuing. However, the impact on the wider economy can influence the metals’ prices. The two oil shocks in the 1970s occurred during a precious metals bull market and the prices continued to climb after the oil shocks, but prices peaked and reversed course once the US economy entered recession. The Gulf War in 1990 occurred while precious metal prices were falling and that trend continued as the war coincided with a recession. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Iraq War in 2003 both came two years after a recession and the broader economy was still strengthening, so the oil price shock was not followed by a recession.

Will the oil price shock cause a recession? A recession would have a more negative impact on PGM and silver prices than gold owing to their greater industrial use. Considering the economic turmoil of the last 12 months US GDP growth has held up well, but the situation looks fragile as jobs data has been poor, although unemployment has remained stable. Higher energy costs are going to feed through to higher prices for businesses and consumers who are already struggling with the cost of living. It is now six years since the last recession. Typical business cycles last five to six years, raising the risk that the economy slips into recession which drags down precious metal prices.

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