Market Report
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Oil price shocks and high gasoline prices impact vehicle sales
No. 12 | 30th March 2026
Consumers have shifted to cheaper-to-run cars during past oil price shocks. US consumers have gradually shifted to buying more SUVs and light trucks over cars over several decades. However, during the early 1980s recessions and again during the global financial crisis (GFC) the share of passenger cars went up compared to light trucks in the US sales mix (cars having better fuel efficiency), even as overall sales fell during the recessions. The GFC was not preceded by an event causing an oil price shock but the price of oil had reached a record level that resulted in average gasoline prices in the US exceeding $4/gal.
The GFC cut global PGM automotive demand by ~2 moz (3E) from 2007 to 2009, which could be a worst-case scenario. It was a deep and long recession which significantly reduced auto sales and hence impacted PGM demand more than in shorter recessions.
This time BEVs and hybrids are both options that did not exist previously. If buyers opt for more fuel-efficient gasoline hybrids that is supportive of PGM demand but if they shift to BEVs that would cut PGM demand.
However, consumers revert to buying larger vehicles once the oil price retreats. After the economy recovered following the GFC, the gasoline price rebounded to near $4/gal and that kept the car share of the market stable until the price dropped in 2014. Then the shift to light trucks accelerated.
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