Market Report

No. 16 | 04^th May 2026

Petrol prices have gone up owing to the war in the Middle East. The price of oil jumped on 1 March following the start of the conflict and rose further as March progressed. The price of Brent crude oil rose by 63% during March. This fed through to higher pump prices for petrol and diesel in many countries, although fuel prices did not rise as much in percentage terms as crude oil owing to the tax component in the petrol price. The question is whether the higher petrol price is enough to noticeably change consumer behaviour and shift them to buying BEVs.

BEV car sales have generally been on a rising trend in many countries. In Europe, BEV sales have been growing for several years and the BEV share in most countries rose in March, including in four of the largest markets, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, but the UK was one of the exceptions with the BEV share falling in March.

China and the US are the two largest markets but have not shown any signs of BEV sales being impacted by the petrol price owing to other influences. Light-vehicle BEV sales in the US slumped after the tax credits were removed last year and the BEV share was stable in the first three months of this year. In China, new vehicle sales have been weak at the start of the year.

Although the BEV share climbed in the first three months of the year, it was still lower than the average for 2025 due to a change in the structure of incentives. China has been exporting increasing numbers of cars including BEVs which has improved the choice and affordability of BEVs in many countries.

Outside of the major markets, BEV sales have been growing but often from a small base. In India, the petrol price has been effectively held stable and BEV car sales have gone up, continuing the existing trend. In Brazil, the petrol price has jumped and BEV sales were the largest share of the market yet in March.

BEV sales look set to continue to climb owing to a variety of factors, reducing the numbers of ICE and hybrid vehicles sold and therefore impacting PGM demand for autocatalysts. However, it is too soon to be sure that the cost of petrol is a major influence, and it may be only a temporary one if the conflict ends soon and fuel prices fall back.

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