Market Report

No. 28 | 03^rd  August 2026: BEVs capture EU car market growth as hybrids cushion PGM demand

BEVs captured a growing share of the EU’s expanding car market in H1’26. Total EU new car registrations rose by 5.7% year-on-year to 5.90 million units, while BEV registrations jumped lifting their market share to 20.7% from 15.6% in H1’25. The transition accelerated in June, when BEV registrations rose by 60.7% year-on-year, representing 23.6% of the market. By contrast, combined petrol and diesel registrations fell by 17.0% to 1.75 million units, reducing their market share to 29.7% from 37.8%. 

Competition from Chinese manufacturers is reinforcing the transition by expanding the supply of lower-priced electrified vehicles. Cars made in China, including European models, represented 17% of EU BEV sales in Q1’26 despite additional duties, while Chinese manufacturers are increasing PHEV sales and localising production in Europe. Higher fuel prices caused by the US-Iran conflict may also have brought forward some BEV purchases. The IEA estimates that, at April prices, the annual fuel cost saving from driving a BEV in the EU was 35% greater than in 2025. Whether this provides a lasting boost to BEV demand remains to be seen. Cheaper fuel could weaken the immediate incentive, although concerns over future price shocks and energy security may have a more persistent influence. 

For PGM demand, the continued growth of hybrids offsets rising BEV sales. Combined HEV and PHEV registrations increased by nearly 362,000 units in H1’26, slightly more than the decline in petrol and diesel cars. As a result, registrations across these four principal catalysed powertrains were almost unchanged at 4.525 million units, compared with 4.522 million in H1’25. Hybrids still require autocatalysts, while intermittent engine operation and lower exhaust temperatures can require higher PGM loadings than petrol and diesel powertrains. The rapid growth of hybrids is therefore helping to preserve autocatalyst PGM demand even as conventional ICE vehicles lose market share. 

Europe’s transition is progressing unevenly across national markets. In H1’26, BEVs accounted for 28.2% of registrations in France and 24.8% in Germany, compared with only 8.5% in Italy and 9.8% in Spain. Italy and Spain are instead electrifying mainly through hybrids, with HEVs and PHEVs together representing around 59% of both markets. The EU is currently pursuing a fleet-wide emissions target of 93.6 g CO2/km for 2025-2029. The EU-wide BEV share of 20.7% remains below the approximately 57% that Transport & Environment estimates would be required by 2030 under the current rules. If this target is undershot, PGM demand from the auto sector could remain higher for longer. 

Across the EU, an increase of more than 320,000 total registrations produced almost no growth in the number of cars across the main autocatalyst-bearing categories. Stable volumes do not necessarily imply flat metal demand, as catalyst loadings differ by powertrain and the balance between petrol and diesel is changing. Chinese BEV competition and persistently high fuel prices could accelerate the transition, while hybrid growth and a lowering of oil prices could slow the loss of catalyst-bearing vehicles. If BEV adoption remains below the trajectory assumed in automotive PGM forecasts, European PGM demand would be stronger than those forecasts imply. The key question is whether recent BEV growth is durable and sufficient to meet the EU’s regulatory pathway.

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