Market Report

No. 14 | 20^th April 2026

Throughout history, gold has been seen as a safe-haven asset, although recent price movements have not been what might be expected for a safe haven. During 2026, the gold price has been exposed to both fundamental and speculative demand that is antecedent to these price moves. 

Most notably, over the trading days immediately following the beginning of the US military operation in Iran, 2 and 3 March, gold prices, along with stocks, fell. Furthermore, as the geopolitical situation worsened gold continued to decline, failing to trouble its highs of just over $5,400/oz posted on the first trading day of the month. Gold fell dramatically after breaking below its 50-day moving average on 18 March. It remained weak until hitting its 200-daymoving average on 23 March, coinciding with the first signs of the conflict easing emerging on 26 March when Trump claimed attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure were delayed following constructive peace talks. Following this, another upward trend seems to have started which has subsequently been bolstered by the temporary ceasefire announcement on 7 April. 

The fundamental case for gold investment comes from it being counterparty free, if held physically, and maintaining its purchasing power against centuries of monetary inflation and currency debasement. The demand that follows this is consistent with a long-term focus coming from central banks, institutions and some retail investors. However, there is a speculative aspect of gold investment which is essentially a trade on price momentum and technicals with the goal of capital appreciation. This demand comes from institutions and retail investors seeking to buy and sell with a short term focus. 

During 2025 and early 2026 the rapid price gains attracted more speculative activity that compounded the attraction of gold, which was based on the rise in geopolitical and economic uncertainty. This has reduced the investment time horizon of the average market participant as more speculators have entered the market. A number of instances where the gold price moves in the opposite direction to what would be likely from a flight to safety can, therefore, be expected. 

These moves do not reflect a change to the fundamental case for gold. Some repositioning and deleveraging during times of cross-asset volatility should be expected. The gold price responding to technical indicators is also an expected symptom of shorter-term speculative market participants. This volatility is likely to last for some time, but, in the long run, gold will retain its fundamental attraction as a way to retain purchasing power.

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