According to Heraeus Precious Metals, one of the global leaders in the precious metals industry, prices for gold, silver and platinum group metals (PGMs) are expected to trend lower for at least the first part of 2026. This year's rally that pushed gold and silver to record highs and PGM prices to their highest level in years, took prices too high too quickly. While prices could rise in the short term, a period of consolidation is likely once the momentum wanes. Key drivers such as continued central bank gold buying, persistent inflation and lower real interest rates could underpin prices. However, softer industrial demand and recession risks present meaningful downside for PGMs.
“After such strong price increases, a period of reset and consolidation is likely. Gold is expected to retain the firmest base, supported by strong central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Silver’s path may be more volatile amid industrial headwind. The Platinum market seems to remain tight but the deficit could narrow. Meanwhile, palladium may face a widening surplus as battery electric vehicles gain market share,” said Henrik Marx, Head of Trading, Heraeus Precious Metals.
Geopolitical and Market Situation: Uncertainty and Structural Shifts
As we enter 2026, global markets may face a mix of economic and geopolitical challenges. Slower growth in major economies such as the U.S. and Europe, as well as persistent inflation, and fiscal imbalances could influence monetary policies. Central banks are expected to maintain lower real interest rates. While this environment is likely to support investment demand for precious metals, it weighs on industrial consumption.
Geopolitical risks are likely to remain high. There is still uncertainty as to whether PGMs could be subject to tariffs in any form, as the US is still conducting a Section 232 investigation and an anti-dumping proceeding against Russian imports. In addition, structural changes in the automotive sector, driven by the spread of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), are changing the demand for PGMs.
China is expected to remain a key factor in global demand trends. Economic stimulus measures may support industrial activity, though adjustments to photovoltaic policies could slow growth in silver demand. Additionally, China’s new Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) includes initiatives to advance green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, which could positively impact the long-term ruthenium and iridium demand.
Henrik Marx added, “Precious metals markets may be influenced by slower economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing transformations in the automotive sector. Lower real interest rates and persistent inflation could support investment demand, while high prices and recession risks could weigh on industrial consumption. We expect the first half of 2026 to be volatile, with clearer opportunities once the consolidation phase matures.”
Gold: Consolidation phase is expected before the rally could resume. Forecast: $3,750–$5,000 per ounce
Gold surged to an all-time high of $4,382 per ounce in October 2025. This was supported by strong investment demand and central bank purchases. Although prices could rise again in the short term, such a dramatic increase is expected to be followed by a period of resetting and consolidation in early 2026 before the next upward trend can begin. This reflects the trend of prices resetting after reaching record highs. Continued central bank buying and lower real interest rates may provide a firm base for gold prices, even as jewelry demand remains subdued due to high prices. Inflationary pressures and fiscal dominance in major economies are likely to keep real interest rates negative, which is traditionally a favorable environment for gold.
Silver: Volatility could persist amid industrial headwinds. Forecast: $43–$62 per ounce
Silver also reached a record high in December 2025, peaking at $58.63 per ounce. After such rapid gains, the market is likely to digest those increases before moving higher. Silver could remain more volatile than gold because its price is influenced by both investment flows and industrial demand. Photovoltaic demand is anticipated to face headwinds as efforts to optimize costs accelerate, including reducing the amount of silver used and designing alternative cells. Meanwhile, investment demand, particularly from ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and retail buyers, could continue to support prices. Silver is expected to remain a more volatile investment than gold. If the rally in gold resumes, then silver is likely to follow.
Platinum: Deficit may narrow, but jewelry could offer upside. Forecast: $1,300–$1,800 per ounce
Although the platinum market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026, the shortfall will likely narrow due to increased secondary supply from higher recycling volumes in Europe. Lease rates are expected to remain elevated. Once the consolidation period ends further price appreciation is anticipated. While automotive demand may decline as BEVs gain market share, but jewelry demand offers potential upside. Platinum is anticipated to remain significantly discounted compared to gold, making it an appealing alternative to white gold, particularly in China, which is the largest market for platinum jewelry.
Palladium: Surplus could widen as automotive demand may decline. Forecast: $950–$1,500 per ounce
The palladium market surplus may widen as BEVs reduce demand for auto catalysts. Global demand is forecasted to dip modestly, with a decrease in automotive requirements being partially offset by slightly higher industrial use. Primary supply is expected to rise slightly, and secondary supply could grow further with higher recycling rates. However, the price of palladium could rise if the price of platinum resumes its rally. Nevertheless, the fundamentals are less supportive as the market moves into a wider surplus.
Rhodium: Market may move into surplus. Forecast: $6,000–$9,000 per ounce
Rhodium could transition from a small deficit to a surplus in 2026. This is due to the possibility of a decline in automotive demand despite modest industrial growth. The surplus stems from the declining production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and higher recycling rates. Prices may trend lower, especially if platinum and palladium continue to decline. In the long term, a rebound in ICE sales could offer limited upside, but the overall trajectory remains pressured.
Ruthenium: Tight market may be supported by data center and hydrogen demand. Forecast: $600–$975 per ounce
Robust data center growth and hydrogen applications could boost demand for ruthenium, keeping the market tight. The artificial intelligence (AI)-driven expansion of hard disk technology and electrolysis for green hydrogen could bolster demand. While the economic outlook anticipates a similar global gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2026 as in 2025, a recession remains a risk for the U.S. and the Eurozone. This could negatively impact the price.
Iridium: Supply recovery could dampen price momentum despite moderate increase in demand. Forecast: $3,800–$5,150 per ounce
Demand for iridium is likely to rise moderately due to its use in hydrogen and electrochemical applications. At the same time, the recovery in supply could limit price increases. Even with an expected market shortage, the recovery in South African production and the cautious outlook for hydrogen project could dampen price increases.
Heraeus forecasts at a glance:
| Precious Metal | Range per ounce |
|---|---|
| Gold | $3,750 – $5,000 |
| Silver | $43 – $62 |
| Platinum | $1,300 – $1,800 |
| Palladium | $950 – $1,500 |
| Rhodium | $6,000 – $9,000 |
| Ruthenium | $600 – $975 |
| Iridium | $3,800 – $5,150 |
